Nicolás Maduro’s capture signals a new Trump-era doctrine in Latin America, where narcoterrorism becomes a pretext to dismantle socialist regimes and send a direct warning to Mexico.
The United States’ capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro shouldn’t have come as a surprise.
He was an unpopular dictator who had suppressed the opposition and manipulated the results of two previous national elections. He wasn’t recognized as a legitimate leader by more than 50 countries, he bid his country’s natural resources to a select few international allies, and he had been taunting Donald Trump to “come and get me; I’m here in Miraflores”. This was bound to happen.
What was notable was how fast we went from the U.S. demonstrating a show of force by blowing up speedboats to a political extraction that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro.
The writing was on the wall for the U.S. takeover of Venezuela. Back in the fall of 2024, then-candidate Donald Trump told U.S. industrial leaders that if they supported him, he’d make it worth it for them. In the case of Venezuela, U.S. oil industrialists have plenty of reason to celebrate.
With Maduro’s ousting, the U.S. is effectively taking over the world’s largest oil reserves. Yes, the world’s largest oil reserves are not in the Middle East; they are in Venezuela. While people call it an invasion, it really wasn’t. It was a hostile takeover.
Trump won’t put troops on the ground, but he’ll do something even smarter; he’ll strategically place an army of political allies to run Venezuela.
Maduro’s capture predictably caused the Republican and Democratic echo chambers to activate, and their messaging could not be more polarizing. World leaders have also chimed in, or better said, have fallen in line with Trump’s actions.
Además de Venezuela, ¿qué otros países prohibieron la minería Bitcoin?
Who’s standing up for Maduro?
Two Latin American leaders in particular have taken hard stances against Trump’s actions. It is no coincidence that these leaders have been under his radar for their socialist-leaning political ideologies.
One is a proud former guerrilla fighter who has been proven to have ties to the cartels and trafficking—Gustavo Petro.
The other happens to be the United States’ neighbor. As Mexico has slowly but surely becomes synonymous with corruption, political assassinations, chaos, extortion, and lawlessness, Claudia Sheinbaum has been feeling the pressure since Trump’s first day in office.
I’m no fan of Nicolás Maduro. In fact, I believe that Mexico has been taking a very dangerous path that mirrors the one that Hugo Chavez and his chosen successor Nicolas Maduro took with Venezuela.
There’s a similarity there that should be noted: that the successor was the one who led to the downfall. Maduro was Hugo Chavez’ successor. Sheinbaum is Lopez Obrador’s successor, and she inherited a country at a crossroads of political ideologies and on the brink of becoming a narco-state.
A new Monroe Doctrine with Mount Rushmore as the goal
Prior to taking office last year, and motivated by a second electoral victory, Donald Trump embarked on a brief verbal campaign to make the case for his face to be sculpted on Mount Rushmore. It was laughable then. It still is now, but as long as Republicans remain in power and responsive to his MAGA base, anything can happen.
Territorial expansion, preferably through military power, has been a part of Trump’s agenda to make a case for his inclusion into Mount Rushmore. I say that military action would be preferred because flexing America’s military muscle fits his brand, and it also satisfies the political war hawks in Congress. One of whom used to be Senator Marco Rubio, but we’ll talk about him later.
At the beginning of his second term, Trump made his intentions of acquiring Greenland apparent. That hasn’t happened because Europe and NATO have been firm in what the consequences of such an action would be.
He also hinted at Canada, but that felt more like a bitter ideological riff with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau than anything else.
Then there’s Mexico. Caught in a perpetual cycle of threats and compromises, Mexico has been on Trump’s radar for narcoterrorism, immigration, and tariffs. The clearest indication of his intent to bully Mexico with military intervention was his signing of Executive Order 14157, which classified Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations.
You better believe that he didn’t do it just for show. He did it because he intends to use it.
Trump’s first commentary on Fox News the morning after the capture of Maduro was, “We may have to do something about Mexico.” He has repeated that several times over the last couple of days, adding that “Sheinbaum must be scared because the cartels run Mexico,” and “Mexico should indeed be concerned.” If I were Claudia Sheinbaum, I would have a contingency plan for an American intervention.
Narcoterrorism as an excuse for ideology
Conservatism, one that resembles Latin American dictatorships of the 1970s and 80s, is cementing itself into the region once again. Newly elected presidents Nary Asufra (Honduras) and José Antonio Kast (Chile) touted their Trump endorsements and won decisively. Experts predicted that the recent Argentinian mid-term elections would be the beginning of the end for President Javier Milei, but his party won control of the Argentine Congress in a landslide. It would be a smart bet to predict that the new Venezuelan government will also be a right-wing Latin American state.
The indictment against Maduro cites narcoterrorism, but the real charge here is being an extreme socialist dictator. Narcoterrorism was the excuse.
I heard the term “Trumproe Doctrine” today. It sounds about right. The United States, under Donald Trump, intends to expand its political, economic, and military influence in Latin America, and Nicolás Maduro was the first one to be made an example of.
The most frustrating part of the echo chamber messaging is that the Democratic messaging makes you believe that Maduro is a victim here somehow. This is somebody whose family ranks among the richest in Venezuela (being rich is not a crime, but embezzling is), someone who has shamelessly benefited from creating an extreme state of poverty and ignorance. As an example of the control he had, last year, he decided to make Christmas in October because the economy wasn’t looking good.
Yes, Trump just executed an oil grab, but China, Russia, Iran, Cuba, and other ideologically aligned countries have all benefited economically from Venezuelan oil too.
The new “Trumproe” Doctrine will not allow for an extreme socialist-populist government to exist in its backyard.
¿Podríamos tener un caso Uribe en México?
Marco Rubio’s positioning for Vice President
In the aftermath of Maduro’s capture, Claudia Sheinbaum called a press conference to express her disagreement. But hers went beyond just a simple announcement, like many other international leaders did. The difference was that Sheinbaum, over the previous weeks, has been continually confronted with the question of a possible U.S. intervention. As background, she has refused to acknowledge Maria Machado’s Nobel Price win, and has also refused to call Maduro’s re-election fraudulent. Why? Because of an aligned left-wing ideology.
This is the kind of ideology that Marco Rubio despises.
I read an LA Times column calling Marco Rubio a “sell out.” It made me shake my head. The author is a liberal-leaning writer, and the positioning was so predictable. The reality is that Marco Rubio embodies the Cuban-American experience in the U.S., and he certainly doesn’t care about being called a “sell-out.”
His allegiance lies to the United States and to his understanding of democratic values, which in his own experience reflect a hatred of socialist-leaning countries. To him, Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia represent the future Cubas in Latin America, and he (and a Republican government) won’t allow that.
As I see it, that’s not right or wrong on Rubio’s end. That’s just reflective of his experience.
In previous columns I’ve also mentioned the importance that Rubio would play in informing President Trump and his entire cabinet of their understanding of Latin America. The Cuban-American and Floridian experience certainly does not reflect all of Latin America, but it’s what we have.
Maduro’s capture is reflective of Rubio’s influence on Trump’s agenda for Latin America and the world, for that matter. After all, he is the Secretary of State of the United States of America.
The political reality for Rubio is that he is positioning himself to be on the next presidential ticket. The rumor is that Vance/Rubio will be the Republican ticket for 2028 and will start campaigning as such as early as 2027.
Rubio’s star is rising, and a successful confrontation with Mexico could be what seals the deal for him.
What are you willing to sacrifice for ideology?
When asked about the possibility of an American military operation in Mexico a few weeks ago, Sheinbaum’s response was quite perplexing. Confidently, she replied, “Well, we have our national anthem.”
It was a predictable call to nationalism. For those who may not know, the Mexican national anthem starts with the lyrics “Mexicanos al grito de guerra” or “Mexicans at the cry of war.” As someone who grew-up in that environment, and for whom the Mexican national anthem was embedded in my soul, I have an emotional connection to that lyric.
But what did she mean? That Mexicans would take up arms?
She and Morena are in a lose-lose situation. They are already deep into an ideological and social transformation of Mexico fueled by political propaganda based on keeping absolute control of the Presidency, Congress, Senate, and their Supreme Court.
Like Maduro in Venezuela, she claims that this is what Mexicans voted for, but that’s not true. In the recent national elections for judicial reform, only 13% of voters showed up at the polls.
Morena is set to conduct elections again this summer, this time for election reform. The main argument is that proportional representation should no longer be allowed. But it was this exact tool that allowed Morena to exist. Now they want to get rid of it.
It’s a classic authoritarian move, much like the ones that the PRI used to conduct under the leadership of individuals who now swear their allegiance to Morena. Morena is like the MAGA of Mexico. It’s cult-like.
Sadly, there will be a U.S. military intervention in Mexico, and it will be conducted under the pretext of narcoterrorism or narcoextractions. This is already brewing in the U.S. court system.
Pay attention to all the plea deals that the notable Mexican traffickers have been accepting in exchange for cooperation. If the buck stopped with the traffickers, then why offer deals for cooperation? Who is the U.S. ultimately after?
They are after big names in the Mexican government, and they are building their case. As such, you can expect Maduro-like extractions coming to Mexico in the near future.
All of this in the name of ideology.
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George I. Gonzalez
Fundador de la firma Complex Made Simple. Experto en comunicaciones de política pública y comentarista Fundador de Complex Made Simple y experto en comunicaciones politicas y corporativas. Originario de CDMX. Fue designado de la Casa Blanca y subsecretario de prensa de desarrollo urbano y vivienda. También fue gerente de comunicaciones de política pública de Facebook en Washington D.C.y recibe contenido exclusivo
