Behind claims of diplomatic success, Mexico faces mounting pressure, cartel-linked corruption, and looming political reforms that may deepen its democratic decline.
Morena’s propaganda machine was busy last week. It was tasked with the impossible: Portraying Mexico as a winner in the latest the latest round of what seems to be an endless loop of tariff threats, narco-political compromises, and calls for nationalism, and political reforms.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s declaration of “having achieved a good deal” after her phone conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump was a “save face” effort, and it comes after weeks of strong statements from Donald Trump portraying her administration as incompetent and ineffective. He went as far as stating that Mexican cartels have a strong control over the country and that its government is petrified.
A few days later, White House Border Czar , Tom Homan, reinforced that message by vowing to wipe the Mexican drug cartels “off the face of the Earth.”
In the backdrop of these statements, Sheinbaum and Trump were scheduled to have a phone conversation to discuss trade, national security and immigration. With the White House having announced sweeping global tariffs that would impact more than 70 countries, Sheinbaum’s main objective was to delay the tariffs on Mexico, which were scheduled to start on August 1st.
The other two subjects will have to wait. They will be part of the political compromises that will undoubtedly unravel this week.
Mexico’s Gaslighting and America’s Reality Check
A false victory
Mexico did succeed in delaying any kind of new tariffs for the next 90 days. Before her conversation with Trump, Sheinbaum stated that she was seeking a “long-term compromise.” She achieved it, but at what cost?
This is now the third “tariffs and compromises” exercise between the two leaders, and it is difficult to believe that Sheinbaum can approach these negotiations from a position of strength.
Mexico is being bullied, and it is under immense pressure from this administration to fight its internal corruption. This pressure can have tremendous political repercussions for Mexico, some that could even threaten its financial stability.
On this upcoming September 4th, U.S. financial institutions will be prohibited from conducting business with CIBanco, Intercam Banco, and Vector Casa de Bolsa. These Mexican financial institutions are under investigation by the US Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network for being the “primary money laundering concern” in connection with fentanyl trafficking.
Complicating matters for Sheinbaum is that at least one of these financial institutions has close ties to AMLO, her political mentor. She owes him her political career. The question is, how much can she and Morena protect their own corrupt institutional and party leadership? The outcome of the Treasury Department’s investigation will determine that.
Sheinbaum and Mexico are in a lose-lose situation.
A ticking time bomb
In one of her recent daily press conferences, Sheinbaum remarked that the U.S. only thinks of Mexico in relation to crime. It’s hard not to though. If you were to think of the current political events happening in Mexico in the context of U.S. politics, you’d think the country was about to collapse.
Take the case of Adán Augusto López Hernández; he is the Senate Party Coordinator, or Senate Majority Leader if compared to U.S. politics. His position was just ratified by the party despite a developing political scandal.
Imagine the U.S. Senate Majority Leader caught in a scandal where two of his top security officials, who he appointed as governor, were now wanted by Interpol on charges of leading a criminal group involved in drug trafficking and murder.
Imagine the governor of any U.S. state being accused of having attended a meeting where the most powerful drug lord in the world was betrayed, kidnapped, and ultimately extradited.
Then having the state police admit to creating a fake video where a person who could have testified to his presence at the meeting was murdered. All while he was supposedly in the United States, or not. But he’s managed to remain governor for more than a year, with the support of President Sheinbaum.
Imagine being the president of Mexico and being baited to publicly respond to the accusations of a drug dealer’s loudmouth lawyer, who claimed you wanted to know the details of the plea deal with “El Chapo’s” son.
Imagine a national sports figure turned politician who would use his name and fame to become governor, only to now be accused of corruption, money laundering, illicit enrichment, and domestic violence.
Imagine being the former president of Mexico, wondering how this situation got out of control, and what you’ll need to do if the U.S. decides it will not be satisfied with one or two headline arrests.
If you consider these examples, their circumstances, and the fact that the U.S. has testimony that it will use in criminal cases against corrupt Mexican officials, you have a ticking time bomb fueled by testimony obtained from Ovidio Guzman, El Mayo, and other notable figures who are looking to cut deals and reduce their sentences.
Don’t call me “Andy” – a failed political dynasty
For a world leader to groom his next of kin as a successor is not uncommon. In some cultures and countries, it is expected and anticipated. In others, like the U.S., it happens via a track record of public service. Let’s take the Bush dynasty as an example.
George H.W. Bush was a decorated navy pilot and served as a member of Congress, Director of the CIA, Vice President, and President. His son was George W. Bush, who was Governor of Texas and President. His other son, Jeb Bush, was governor of Florida and ran for president.
In Mexico, AMLO is trying to forge his own political dynasty. Except that his heirs don’t have the experience or the character necessary to lead a country.
Andres Manuel “Andy” Lopez Beltran is AMLO’s son. That’s about the only claim he can have to any political power. In his earlier years, he played the role of the supportive and understanding son who would speak truths about his father’s austerity and desire to serve Mexico’s poor.
During his father’s presidency, as reflected in publicly disclosed records, Andy’s friends created companies that would be the beneficiaries of hundreds of millions of dollars in public works and infrastructure contracts.
Some of these contracts would represent conflicts of interest, as his father was aggressively pushing for these infrastructure projects. These include the controversial “Tren Maya”, a high-speed rail that connects the Yucatan peninsula with central Mexico.
Some anticipated that once Claudia Sheinbaum became president, she would assume the role of party leader and appoint a new set of party leaders to her cabinet. That was not to be. Better said, those weren’t AMLO’s plans.
Sheinbaum played musical chairs with many of AMLO’s closest advisors, and AMLO appointed his son Andy as party chairman of Morena. What has Andy done as chairman? His first public declarations hinted at his “fifí” lifestyle, despite his father’s claim of austerity.
His leadership has been challenged by scandals as the ones mentioned above, his has been unable to keep a united Morena – there are clear factions developing in the party, some support Sheinbaum, others support the machine.
Last month, Morena held its annual summit, the first since Sheinbaum’s vast victory last summer. This was the first summit where Andy could begin to position himself as a leader.
In what has proven to be a major political blunder, he skipped the convention, and was instead captured a few days later in Tokyo, enjoying a life of luxury.
He has yet to provide a public explanation. His public relations machine is working overtime to figure out the message, but it’s all for nothing. He’s inflicted himself too much damage already.
It all started with his appearance on a popular podcast and becoming visibly upset at the host for calling him “Andy.” He rudely asked the host to “refer to him as Andres Manuel” and said that “his name was not Andy.”
Being called Andres Manuel publicly is his main public relations objective; it was something that would be subtly implanted in his image until it became synonymous with his father. Except it happened under a severe character flaw that exposed his sense of entitlement.
Two Houses Divided: Conspiracies and a Lack of Leadership
The danger of new political reforms
The final stage of the “tariffs and compromises” cycle between the U.S. and Mexico is the call for political reforms. In the past cycle, Mexico held what are widely considered tainted judicial elections that followed a strategic plan by Morena to consolidate its power and minimize the opposition.
For about a month now, Sheinbaum has been hinting at the need to hold another election, this time to vote for electoral reform. The main reform in question is the empowerment and congressional and senate seats allocated via democratic representation.
In Mexico, historically there had been two main parties—the PRI and the PAN. The PRD emerged under the leadership of Cuauhtemoc Cardenas (a positive example of a president’s son who opted for public service and ran for president twice); it would then become AMLO’s party and a refuge for former PRI leaders until AMLO decided to create Morena. The rest is history.
Morena exists today because of proportional representation; now, in a true political grab, Morena is advocating for the elimination of the policy that gave it life.
Keep an eye on this developing narrative. After the so-called “victory in Trump’s call,” Sheinbaum immediately announced the creation of an Election Reform Presidential Commission. I wonder what the findings of this commission will be. Shocker, that the country needs election reform.
Neither AMLO nor Sheinbaum asked the Mexican electorate if they wanted the previous judicial reform election. The result was an abysmal 13% voter turnout with no real education about what was at stake. The consequences of this promoted ignorance were real. Morena consolidated the judicial branch and control the now elected Mexican Supreme Court.
A tough self-reflection
Mexico must look at itself in the mirror. It must face the ugly truth that time is running out on its institutional corruption. It cannot continue to survive as a truly sovereign country when you are living deadline by deadline.
You cannot govern under the threat of lists of high-ranking political figures tied to cartels being made public. You can’t be going through this cycle every 90 days.
That’s Mexico’s position at the negotiating table, and that’s why it allows itself to be bullied. It doesn’t have the strength to fight back because it’s rotten inside.
Two Houses Divided: Conspiracies and a Lack of Leadership
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George I. Gonzalez
Fundador de la firma Complex Made Simple. Experto en comunicaciones de política pública y comentarista Fundador de Complex Made Simple y experto en comunicaciones politicas y corporativas. Originario de CDMX. Fue designado de la Casa Blanca y subsecretario de prensa de desarrollo urbano y vivienda. También fue gerente de comunicaciones de política pública de Facebook en Washington D.C.y recibe contenido exclusivo
