Trump’s bullying of Mexico exposes a weak, submissive response, fueling fears that U.S. pressure will keep dictating policy south of the border.
“El valiente vive hasta que el cobarde quiere”, it’s a popular Spanish saying that is usually applied to the dynamics between a bully and the victim of his harassment. Not literal, but it roughly translates to “the bully lives until the coward allows him to.”
This is a fitting description of the current relationship between Mexico and the United States.
MIT SMR México se financia mediante anuncios y sociosSince Trump took office, Mexico has been put in the powerless position of having to both defend itself against Trump’s political aggressions and trying to avoid exposure of Morena’s hypocritical consolidation of power.
Last week, Donald Trump declared that Mexico is at his political whim and that it will do whatever he tells it to do. A crude and rude statement that undermines Mexico’s democracy and sovereignty.
What did Mexico do in response? The only thing it can do – have Claudia Sheinbaum make a passive statement, call on Mexican nationalism, and hope for the best in the next round of tariff negotiations.
Not surprisingly, Trump’s statement caught traction among a developing Mexican opposition. To an ever-growing number of Mexicans, Trump is not a villain. To them, he’s Mexico’s savior and the only person capable of tackling a corrupt and institutionalized political system that is slowly turning Mexico into a socialist country that mirrors the likes of Venezuela.
Two Houses Divided: Conspiracies and a Lack of Leadership
On a broader social scale, Mexico is experiencing what Colombia went through in the 1980s and 1990s – an uncontrollable wave of narco-terrorism, a new political class fueled by a narco-economy, politicians willing to look the other way, and a United States ready to use military intervention and black-ops to contain the influence of organized crime.
Proceso 8000 refers to the investigation into the allegations that former Colombian President Ernesto Samper’s campaign was funded by the Cali cartel.
A similar narrative is developing in Mexico. This narrative is being driven by the United State’s aggressive tactics to force the Mexican government’s hand into extraditing some of its most notable organized crime figures.
The extradition of these figures has come after predictable cycles of tariff negotiations, threats of military intervention, nationalistic rhetoric, and a backlash to proposed political reforms.
Earlier this week, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, pleaded guilty to all charges brought against him by the U.S. Department of Justice. There will be no trial. This is both a relief and terrifying to Morena’s leadership.
“El Mayo” was the co-founder of the Sinaloa Cartel, along with “El Chapo” Guzman. Unlike Guzman, he was able to evade justice for more than 50 years before his “surrender” to U.S. authorities last summer.
By all intents and purposes, “El Mayo” is a historical repository of Mexico’s institutional corruption and is now committed to divulging information that is going to compromise high-ranking figures in the Mexican government.
Earlier this week, in her daily press conference, Sheinbaum commented on “El Mayo’s” guilty plea and repeated the same talking points that AMLO used last summer. Sheinbaum and Mexican law enforcement are still asking the U.S. for information about the arrest and making the case for the criminal’s return to Mexican soil, arguing he was kidnapped.
What she, Morena, and many of the members of her cabinet should be fearing is the Trump administration’s determination to make high-profile arrests of Mexican government officials and expose the country’s institutional corruption.
The pieces of the puzzle are falling into place for that to happen.
If you consider that “El Chapo’s” son recently cut a deal with the U.S. government that includes witness protection for 17 members of his extended family, that “El Mayo” has also cut a deal to reduce his sentence, and that over 60 high ranking figures of organized crime have been extradited since January (they will also be looking to cut deals to reduce their sentences), you’ll see there’s a developing narrative that organized crime bought and paid for both AMLO’s and Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidential campaigns.
As the only Latino cabinet member and one of only a few Latino elected officials that were in Trump’s graces, Rubio carries a tremendous responsibility in his role as Secretary of State. He has Trump’s ear, and whatever he whispers to it will be taken as truth.
For proof, ask Nicolás Maduro. Under previous administrations, both Democrat and Republican, Venezuela was reduced to a talking point in political rhetoric. Under Trump (and Rubio) that rhetoric has turned into action.
For Mexico, there’s a price to pay for the lack of political representation or cultural experience in Trump’s inner circle. Rubio’s political ideology is not representative of the Mexican-American; it is representative of the Cuban-American. It is anti-communist or socialist, hard-lined in the use of military action, and very much supportive of a modern-day Monroe Doctrine.
Rubio has previously expressed concern about Mexico’s adoption of policies and political reforms that are consolidating Morena’s power at all levels of government.
He will not allow for Mexico to turn into Venezuela, and if necessary, he (and Trump) will take any action to prevent it. This includes military action.
Part of the nationalistic rhetoric that followed the latest tariff compromises revolved around U.S. troops conducting operations on Mexican soil to “combat the cartels.”
The truth is, you’d have to be very naïve to not believe that U.S. troops or “advisors” are already on Mexican soil providing training and tactics to the elite Mexican units that are currently conducting a literal war against the cartels. A war that includes the use of explosive drones, military-style ambushes of law enforcement and Mexican army units, and all-out chaos in cities like Culiacán.
As former Mexican dictator Porfirio Diaz stated before his exile to France:
“Poor Mexico, so far away from God, and so close to the United States.”
Sheinbaum and Morena are testing the bully by insisting on pushing for “power-grabbing” political reforms that the voters haven’t called for. They include the election of all levels of magistrates and judges, including the Mexican Supreme Court. Now, Morena is pushing for broad election reforms that would eliminate proportional representation.
Considering that the Mexican opposition is fragmented, the proposed election reforms would make Morena the only viable option for voters. Much like Hugo Chavez did in Venezuela, political reforms in Mexico are paving the way for a dictatorship that disguises itself as a government that represents the interests of those who have been historically marginalized.
Trade Negotiations: Did Mexico Really Win?
For a political party that has forged its identity on being representative of the country’s poor and marginalized, Morena’s members sure like to show off their wealth and power. To understand this behavior, you have to remind yourself that most of Morena’s leadership are rehashed members of the PRI, so they see nothing wrong with this hypocrisy.
Over the past few weeks, key members of Morena’s leadership have been exposed while on lavish vacations to the Italian coast, Spain, and Japan. What was concerning to me was the political messaging immediately deployed to try to control the narrative.
Following the predictable strategies of political propaganda, Morena’s national president, Luisa María Alcalde, took to the airwaves to deliver an address designed to guilt the audience into thinking that these lavish trips are normal and within the rights of these elected officials. She explained that taking a vacation to Japan, Italy, or Europe was not a crime.
Her speech was not well-received. It felt like an abuser who preaches acceptance of their behavior.
In fact, President Sheinbaum had to step-in to do some damage control. Her stepping in only showcased a developing division between factions of Morena – those who are loyal to AMLO, and those who favor Sheinbaum. But ultimately, this is AMLO’s party, and even Sheinbaum has to bend to his wishes.
A few days after Andy Lopez Beltran’s lavish trip to Japan was exposed, Sheinbaum publicly expressed the need for humility and responsibility in public office. Her public reprimanding of Andy, her mentor’s son, was a big eye-opener and the start of what may prove to be a deep fracture between Sheinbaum and AMLO.
In her response to Andy’s letter of apology, she stated that power should be exercised with humility and responsibility. But the damage has been done. The excess and exuberance of Morena’s leaders has been exposed.
Sheinbaum’s narrative and that of Morena’s leadership just don’t align. In a comical moment, shortly after Sheinbaum’s statements, Luisa Alcalde took to the airwaves yet again, this time to subtly ask members of Morena to be more subtle in their public displays of wealth. It all seemed like one big comedy of errors.
I’ve been lucky enough to be in Mexico City for two of the most consequential elections in the country’s history – the 2000 election that ended the PRI’s 70+ year rule and the 2018 election that granted AMLO a landslide victory. I proudly voted in the 2018 election, and not for Morena.
A U.S. political friend of mine and his wife were invited to attend AMLO’s inauguration. I didn’t expect them to know much about the on-the-ground political sentiment that was so prevalent at that time. He asked the obvious question: is AMLO going to be a favorable president?
No, I replied. I explained that what had happened was a political reckoning. One in which the majority of Mexican voters rebelled against the ineptitude of Enrique Peña Nieto and the PRI.
I also explained that the next steps for AMLO would be the implementation of gradual reforms, and that there would be a struggle between the old guard/historical political class and the new class (Morena and its militants) seeking to establish and retain power.
The lavish vacations, excess spending, and social media posts showcasing luxury goods that are unattainable to the average Mexican are the staples of the new Mexican political class, one that claims to represent the interests of Mexico’s poor.
Mexico’s Gaslighting and America’s Reality Check
That depends on your perspective of Mexico’s economic future. If you believe that Mexico’s economic future is closely tied to that of the United States, then Sheinbaum and Morena should be looking to set their feet on more solid ground.
Mexico can’t continue to negotiate with the United States from a position where it is trying to please Trump’s political whims. This means that Morena’s political reform agenda will have to be scaled back.
On the other hand, Mexico can choose to walk away from the bully and strengthen its relationships with China. As an example of the two countries’ growing economic ties, in the first four months of 2025, China became Mexico’s top foreign car supplier, exporting over US$2.05 billion worth of vehicles, including EVs, hybrids, and gasoline-powered cars.
The bully lives until the coward allows him to. Mexico needs to remember that and start to figure out how to leverage its growing consumer market to mitigate Trump’s political whims. But will Morena’s own ambitions of generational power destroy its economic relationship with the United States? Time, political ambitions, and the outcomes of narco-trails will tell.
