Tariffs, Buyer’s Remorse, Immigration Protests, and Mexico’s Patriotic Gimmicks

This past presidential election redefined the role of the swing voter and demonstrated how small gains in traditionally democratic voters from all demographics can be the catalyst for major change. Voter political allegiances can switch in just four years. 

All it took was a persistent rate of inflation that hasn’t quite resided. People are still paying $4.00 for a gallon of gasoline, and eggs can range from $8 to $12 per dozen. Yes, other factors come into play, like bird flu impacting the supply, but still, the average person is still feeling the pinch in their pocket. 

Mexican, Canadian, and Chinese consumers will soon feel that pinch as well. Last Friday, Trump announced tariffs of 25% against Mexico and Canada, and 10% against Chinese goods.  

They were official, until later this morning, when Mexico announced that it has been able to postpone the tariffs for at least a month and was hoping to find a diplomatic solution.

Mexico is being bullied, and this is catastrophic news for the soon-to-be negotiated United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Claudia Sheinbaum, and a fragile Mexican economy.

Peso retrocede tras nuevas amenazas arancelarias de Trump

Trump exhaust has settled in

His promise to turn around the economy quickly was Trump’s major argument to make those small gains with key voter demographics, but people are starting to get buyer’s remorse. 

Last week, it was reported that President Trump’s approval rating is 47%, just two points above his historically low 45% in 2017. That’s a far cry from his own popularity ratings that led him to gather the second-highest voter total in American history; second only to Joe Biden’s total in 2020. This again demonstrates the support volatility of key groups. 

It’s not the Trump loyalists who are disapproving of his performance, it’s the people who turned on the Democratic Party, and if given the chance, they’d rethink their vote. 

People are already exhausted, and it’s only been two weeks. His antics and predictable camera babbling have predictably taken center stage again, and people are remembering the chaos of his first presidency and fearing what’s to come.

This is a great opportunity for the Democratic Party to regroup, to plan their strategy of opposition for the next four years, and most importantly, to identify their next leader. Since announcing his first presidential run 11 years ago, there hasn’t been any doubt that Trump is the leader of the Republican Party. The Democrats don’t have that, and they desperately need it. 

Are you getting deported?

In the Latino community, the common question being asked is: are you getting deported? Or if not you, maybe someone you know? It’s sad, but we all know someone who is at risk. This has caused panic and high anxiety in working-class communities. Even among Latinos, opinions are sharply divided on the issue, just ask Selena Gomez. 

There’s a sense of helplessness because immigration advocates are powerless to stop the raids. There’s a false narrative that immigrants are not at risk if they live in a “sanctuary” city or jurisdiction. That’s not true.

Sanctuary jurisdictions only forbid their law enforcement agencies from collaborating with federal agencies in the planning and execution of the raids.  Trump’s executive order allows for raids and detentions in places like churches, schools, and any public spaces. Those who support the raids proudly claim, “there is no place to hide”, and they are right. 

The first few days after Trump took office, the media had a high focus on potential raids in Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, New York, Denver, and other major cities. The images of empty farm fields, urban warehouses, and rotting produce were not too far behind. The economic ripple effect of the raids is yet to be fully felt, but the social impact is already visible.

This past weekend, there was a significant protest in Los Angeles, where thousands of sympathizers and supporters of immigrant rights closed the 101 Freeway in Downtown and marched through its major thoroughfares. Waving Mexican flags, they held anti-Trump, “no to ICE”, and “this used to be Mexico” signs. 

Protests like these are expected in cities with significant Mexican or Mexican-American populations, but they won’t have a single impact on the current reality facing those individuals at risk for deportation. 

In fact, they do little more than appeal to a certain kind of advocate. In their own echo chamber, they are doing justice for the people, even though the protest won’t stop ICE from conducting raids. The reality is that (much like Morena’s and AMLO’s infamous mid-city “manifestaciones”) they mostly inconvenience commuters and agitate a voting population that rightfully replies with “if you like Mexico so much, why don’t you go back?”. 

I’m very proud to have been born in Mexico, I’m very proud of my culture, my roots and of my upbringing in a society where everyone is Mexican, despite their cultural backgrounds. I have always argued against the waving of the Mexican flag in these protests because it signals an unwillingness to assimilate, and that is precisely what prompts a certain kind of Latino to vote for Trump. After all, more than half of Latinos did. 

In my early adulthood, I spent a lot of time knocking on Latino voters’ doors to either get them to the polls or to encourage them to register to vote.

“Nah man. Why should I vote, eh?”

It was these kinds of traditionally disengaged Latinos who comprised the bulk of the crowd in these protests. While great for television stories, particularly for Univision and Telemundo, they didn’t ask the hard questions to the protesters. Questions like: Did you vote? Have you ever voted? Who did you vote for?

Mexico’s Patriotic Gimmicks 

The immigrants being deported and the lives they leave behind is the human side of this story, But the political side, is equally tragic in the way it has exposed the diplomatic weakness of populist democracies like Mexico and Colombia. In the days leading up to the now official tariffs against Mexico, its government (and Colombia’s) quickly folded after initially taking a strong public stance of not allowing deportation flights to land. 

Under threat of the on-and-off again tariffs on all Mexican goods, President Sheinbaum has repeatedly stated that she had an open dialogue with the U.S. and that she was sure that there would be a resolution. With today’s delay announcement, for now, she has avoided a free-fall of the Mexican economy.

Throughout this process, Sheinbaum and Morena have resorted to patriotic gimmicks. Some of the most notable ones include the history lesson of how the U.S. came to acquire almost half of Mexico’s territory, making the point of “America Mexicana” or wearing a red cap with “Make America Mexico Again”.

This past weekend, the Mexican congress gathered to sing the national anthem (as if that would make a difference to anything), while the opposition shouted “narcogobierno” or “narco-government”. This is buffoonery at its finest, and it will have real political and economic consequences for Mexico.

One of AMLO’s claims of success was that the Mexican economy was among the strongest in the world (according to him). True or not, it was undeniable that as recently as early 2024, at $15 pesos per dollar, the Mexican economy was strong, and AMLO loved to refer to the “super peso”.  At almost $21 pesos per dollar now, the “super peso” is long gone.  

Today, Mexico is at risk of losing its number one trading partner status with the United States; it is at risk of falling into a recession (as reported over the weekend), and it’ll be a significant test of Sheinbaum and Morena’s democratic socialist policies. There’s a furious backlash brewing against Sheinbaum, and she’s only 3 months into her tenure, with 5.8 years to go.

Just like the U.S., Mexico’s fringe voters are the key to winning elections, and their volatility is about to be tested. A bad economy was the leading cause of voter shifts in the U.S., and Mexico will also experience that shift. Is Mexico laying the foundation for the rise of a nationalistic right-wing leader – a Mexican Trump of sorts? 

Like Trump, Sheinbaum’s gimmicks feed into the nationalistic propaganda of their populist base, and they are distractions to their real agendas of dismantling the federal government and democratic institutions (all under the justification of the people’s mandate).

In Mexico, the issue of judicial reform has taken over all domestic policy priorities. Last week, in a staged ceremony, Sheinbaum claimed that “for the first time, the people will vote for judges, magistrates, and justice ministers.” 

It all sounds fine, until you see the qualifications of the candidates that running for these positions, their fanatical political affiliation to Morena, and the dismal corruption record that Morena elected officials have at the municipal level. Things were bad in Mexico before, so it is difficult to imagine that things could get worse, but under AMLO and Sheinbaum’s leadership, they have. 

Mexico’s crime rates are at historic highs. Is this really the time to politicize a judicial system that barely delivers any results? In Mexico, more than 90% of crimes go unpunished. Is this really justice for the people? Or is it justice for Morena’s political establishment? Is it future cover for any future corruption charges of its senior leaders? Charges likely coming from the U.S. Justice Department? The trail of El Mayo is on the horizon, and it promises to be filled with explosive revelations of the implication of high-profile Mexican political figures involved in organized crime.

Mexico is at a critical point in its economic and political relationship with the United States. This isn’t a time for gimmicks. It’s time to get serious and recognize that both countries futures are inexplicably tied to one another. And after all, Superbowl Sunday is almost here, and who wants to pay $7 for two avocados? Right?

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