Mexico’s Future: Tariffs, Narco Extraditions, and a Perpetual Waiting Game

The first three months of Donald Trump’s presidency have fundamentally changed the political dynamics between Mexico and the United States in a way that was previously unimaginable.

President Claudia Sheinbaum knew that Trump would make Mexico a target, not just as a perceived culprit of non-border enforcement in the immigration debate, but most importantly, as a perceived threat to the national security of the United States. America’s “war on drugs” has officially escalated, and it’s become more militarized. 

The narrative that Morena has crafted is that President Sheinbaum’s diplomatic skills and timely conversations with Trump have avoided the hefty tariffs he’s promised to impose on its largest trading partner. But that’s not the case. The reality is that the relationship between both countries is being led by a single issue: narco extraditions and captures.

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Unprecedented mass extraditions

U.S. law enforcement sent a strong message to their Mexican counterparts with the capture or surrender – the true story will probably never be known – of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada.

For more than 50 years, Zambada was able to evade the authorities of both countries, and the circumstances of his capture almost nine months ago pointed to the Mexican government being caught completely by surprise. 

They were never part of the plan, and their reaction affirmed it. It was clear that U.S. law enforcement does not trust their Mexican counterparts. This incident was the beginning of a sour period between AMLO’s government and the Biden administration.

It even led to AMLO cutting diplomatic ties with the United States. That was never going to last, but he had to make it a political gesture.

What Claudia Sheinbaum inherited was a powder keg fueled by Donald Trump’s and Marco Rubio’s accusations that Mexico’s government is corrupt and a “narco government”.  

Sheinbaum has had no other choice but to respond with mass narco extraditions that were unthinkable just months ago.

In a congressional hearing this week, CIA Director, John Ratcliffe, noted the cooperation between the Mexico’s current Secretary of Public Security, Omar García Harfuch, and highlighted his meetings with FBI Director, Kash Patel, and Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. Their joint top priority, as stated, is to stop organized crime and the trafficking of fentanyl across the southern border.

The threat of tariffs (while they may happen) is just a façade. What the U.S. really wants, what Trump really wants, and what America’s war on drugs really needs is another big capture – one that Trump can take credit for. The grand prize would be a high-ranking Mexican official. Who’s going to be the chosen one? 

The 2023 conviction of Genaro Garcia Luna, Mexico’s former Secretary of Public Security during Felipe Calderon’s presidency, was very high profile, the 2019 conviction of “El Chapo” Guzmán was considered the “trial of the century”, and the 2024 capture or surrender of “El Mayo” was the latest headline. The Trump administration wants a big win, and one can’t help but think that there are bigger targets and larger investigations underway.

In a letter published earlier this year, “El Mayo” pointed to his knowledge of Mexican officials who have been involved with organized crime and threatened that his revelations could destabilize the bilateral relationship. If, and when, “El Mayo” goes to trail is yet to be determined; but if there is a trail, it will most definitely compromise top Mexican officials. 

Morena’s narrative is that they inherited a “war on drugs” that was initiated by President Calderón and continued under President Peña Nieto.

The numbers say otherwise. AMLO’s approach of “hugs not bullets” only allowed for the militarization of the cartels, increased battles for territory throughout the country, and added hundreds of thousands to the total death toll and number of people who are missing or have disappeared. Morena needs to stop blaming the previous administrations and own the consequences of their own policies.

The militarization of the war on drugs

Back in February, Mexican news reported that American military aircraft had been observed and tracked flying in their airspace, jeopardizing their sovereignty. Only a few days later, American navy vessels were reported in Mexican waters off the Pacific Coast.

News of these incidents was not reported in U.S. general media, but they were clear signs of intimidation. At the time, President Sheinbaum was happy to play a game of political gimmicks, focusing on the Gulf of America debate, calling on Mexico’s nationalist spirit, evoking the national anthem (nothing is more sacred to a Mexican than the national anthem, I’m serious), and of course, avoiding tariffs. 

These types of U.S. military incursions are a direct consequence of Trump’s designation of the Mexican drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.

Coincidentally, as Sheinbaum praises her efforts of success in dealing with Trump, the number of narco extraditions and the names involved have been eye-opening. For many of the extradited, the unspoken rule in Mexico was that they would avoid extradition, but that was quickly thrown out the window.

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Stiffer sanctions and death penalty 

By this President’s and this administration’s logic, someone will be made an example of. We are already seeing stiffer sentences, and I am sure that the death penalty will be applied to one or several of the recently extradited big names – a who is who of Mexican narco trafficking over the past 30 years.

As an example of stiffer sentences, earlier this month, “El Menchito”, son of “El Mencho”, leader of the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) was sentenced to life in prison with no parole. His sentence was considered harsh, and at the level of that of “El Chapo”.  An aggravating factor to his sentence was his role in shooting down a Mexican military helicopter in an operation to capture his father.

In a dramatic change to the “hugs, not bullets” approach that AMLO preferred, Sheinbaum is either willingly or being forced to relentlessly pursue all of today’s most notable cartel leaders, and extradite figures like Rafael “Caro” Quintero, long believed to be the man responsible for the murder of DEA Agent Enrique Camarena, or the infamous Z-40 and Z-42, who led the now defunct “Zetas” cartel and were responsible for one of the most violent periods in cartel wars history. They never thought they would, but they will now face American justice, and their likely outcome could be the death penalty. 

Oddly enough, many Mexicans are happy that Trump is forcing Sheinbaum’s hand. They know that if left to their own policies, things in Mexico would never change. The perception that Morena is a “narco partido” is very real, many of its leaders have been around since the glory days of the PRI, when narco infiltration of the state began. This includes AMLO himself, who is nowhere to be found. 

The threat of tariffs will again be a headline on April 4^th, and President Sheinbaum will predictably play the diplomatic card, have a call with Trump, and proclaim victory if the tariffs are delayed.

But the real question is: what narco capture or extradition will help please the Trump administration? How long can Mexico continue to play this game? How long before a high-ranking Mexican official becomes the sacrificial lamb? I suppose we’ll find out in the coming months.

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