The death of “El Mencho” may look like a victory for Mexico, but it exposes deep institutional corruption, U.S. pressure, and the fragile balance of sovereignty amid cartel power.
The death of Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes was a much-needed victory for Claudia Sheinbaum and the Mexican government. It’s the kind of headline and cooperative effort that helps Mexico appease the Trump Administration’s pressure to crack down on the perception that its government is beholden to organized crime.
Major actions against Mexican cartels, instigated by the United States, were already on the horizon, and the death or capture of “El Mencho” had been brewing since January 2025.
MIT SMR México se financia mediante anuncios y sociosIn a clear indication that the rules of engagement with Mexican cartels were going to change, the Trump Administration immediately took steps to classify the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) and other Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
Last month, quietly, the U.S. announced the formation of the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel, and its impact would be almost immediate. As confirmed by Mexican authorities, this new Task Force would be responsible for providing high-level intelligence that would ultimately lead to “El Mencho’s” location, confrontation, and death.
Within the celebratory mood, nationalistic rhetoric, and victory that Claudia Sheinbaum has portrayed, it is important to remember that the diplomatic relationship between her and Trump has been dictated by tariff threats and compromises, followed by personal flattery, passive aggressiveness, narco-extraditions, and nationalistic rhetoric.
This cycle has been displayed three times since she took office, highlighted by notable narco-extraditions that were previously unthinkable.
These include Rafael Caro Quintero (responsible for the torture and death of DEA Agent Enrique Camarena), Ovidio Guzman, and Miguel Ángel Treviño Morales “El Z-40” – who was the leader of the “Zetas” cartel. It was the “Zetas” that set the new standard of violence in Mexico during the 2000’s and 2010’s. The kind of violence that would later be elevated and normalized by “El Mencho” and the CJNG.
Democratic Strategies of Wasted Opportunities and Self-Sabotage
The United States’ war against the Mexican cartels was started by the Biden Administration. His administration coordinated the kidnapping and extradition of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada in the summer of 2024. Then Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was furious that the operation had taken place without informing Mexican authorities and retaliated with a series of whims, like temporarily suspending diplomatic ties with the United States for a few days.
Claudia Sheinbaum still doesn’t have an answer when asked about the operation that detained “El Mayo.” She continues to refer to American authorities for further details.
That must be frustrating, and add to that Trump’s relentless commentary about Mexico being run by the cartels.
His recent round of accusations came after the capture of Nicolás Maduro, when he stated that “something will have to be done about Mexico.”
The narrative of cooperation between the two countries was recently tested with the capture of Ryan Wedding, a former Canadian Olympic snowboarder turned international drug kingpin. Wedding was on the FBI’s Most Wanted list and was an associate of the CJNG.
In the aftermath of Wedding’s arrest, there were numerous discrepancies between the accounts and involvement of U.S. agencies in the operation. Needing a victory, Sheinbaum and Mexican authorities continually denied that there had been any U.S. involvement. On the other hand, U.S authorities took a lot of credit for the arrest.
Sheinbaum and her military advisors got it right this time. For this operation, there have not been any discrepancies in the language, facts, and U.S. involvement.
As far as both countries are concerned, the U.S. only provided intelligence.
Sheinbaum should realize by now, that she is in a lose-lose situation when it comes to dealing with Trump, his administration, and their narrative that Mexico is run by the cartels.
There’s an old saying that successful propaganda is repeating a statement until people believe it is true. Sheinbaum has mastered this art, and her ability to sell half-truths is on full display daily during her daily morning press conferences.
But propaganda goes both ways, and she’s not beating Trump at that game.
Trump’s narrative has been effective. So much so, that now Elon Musk has chimed in. For background, Tesla was seeking to invest almost $10 billion into a “Gigaplant” in the state of Nuevo Leon, but that project is on hold due to tariffs and political uncertainty.
Rightfully, Sheinbaum has taken the higher road. And in true MAGA-like fashion, has threatened legal action against Musk. Good for her.
Her resolve in this confrontation demonstrates maturity. Last summer, “El Mayo’s” lawyer stated that his client would be willing to call out names of Mexican/Morena political figures associated with organized crime. It baited Sheinbaum, and it worked.
She called for a press conference that same day and stated that Mexico (or her) would not be pushed around. She was heavily criticized for not demonstrating composure and being reduced to a direct dialogue with the lawyer of a jailed organized crime figure.
She took better advice this time.
In the build-up to the operation that led to the death of “El Mencho,” Sheinbaum was already deeply entangled in a series of lies denying U.S. involvement and affirming Mexico’s sovereignty.
Trump’s statements hinting at military operations in Mexico have been a constant for months, but they have intensified after the capture of Maduro. As a response, Sheinbaum has repeatedly asserted that Mexico is ready to challenge the U.S. and will not allow it to dictate their national or international policies.
Her supporters cheered, if only for a few days.
Two days after her statements, a U.S. Defense Department C-10 plane was photographed landing at the new AIFA airport. When asked about it, Sheinbaum stated that it had already been pre-arranged and that it was for training purposes.
A few days after that, the latest tranche of narco-extraditions took place.
In addition, two weeks ago, the Mexican Senate (controlled by Morena in a supermajority) approved the entry of 19 U.S. Navy SEAL Team 2 members to train Mexican special forces.
Sheinbaum either lied or was deceived. Neither case is good.
The extent of U.S. involvement in the operation that brought down “El Mencho” might never be known. But for now, Sheinbaum will take that narrative and run with the sentiment that Mexico should celebrate this narco-victory.
Democratic Strategies of Wasted Opportunities and Self-Sabotage
The saying that “all politics are local” could not be truer in Mexico. Facing serious concerns from foreign investors and tourists about Mexico’s public safety, earlier this month Sheinbaum explained in her daily press conference that (under her leadership) homicides have declined by 30% in 2025, with around 23,000+ victims reported.
She also added that high-impact crimes (including femicides, kidnapping, and robbery) declined by 14.4% in 2025.
In contrast, a recently released independent study sponsored by El Mundo notes that in 2025 more than 72,000 incidents related to lethal violence were recorded, an increase of 68.2% from 2015. Noting 2015 is important because between Sheinbaum and AMLO, Morena has governed Mexico for the last eight years – and yet, her answer to any criminality indexes continues to be to blame the “neoliberal” governments of Enrique Peña Nieto and Felipe Calderón.
Between 2003 and November 2025, 115 mayors, municipal presidents, and council members were murdered in Mexico. With the presidency of Enrique Peña Nieto (38 cases) being the deadliest, followed by that of Felipe Calderón (36 cases).
Two recent cases of local Mayors have captured the attention of Mexican headlines and highlight a broader problem facing Sheinbaum and Morena – that it is in local authorities that cartels find their best allies.
The recent cases of Carlos Manso Rodríguez, Mayor of Uruapan, Michoacan, and the case of Diego Rivera Navarro, Mayor of Tequila, Jalisco, exemplify this dynamic.
In November 2025, Carlos Manso Rodriguez was gunned-down in a public plaza. For months he had become the face of the opposition to Morena, calling on Sheinbaum directly to do something about the continual extortion, death threats, and overall insecurity caused by the CJNG in Uruapan. He was killed after a nationally televised interview and became an instant martyr. This started a movement in which opposition politicians wore cowboy hats as symbols of Manso Rodriguez’s plight.
In contrast, last month, Diego Rivera Navarro, a Morena member (for whom Sheinbaum campaigned and even appeared in commercials with him), was arrested in Tequila, Jalisco, for money laundering, business extortion, and death threats to other candidates. He did this in association with the CJNG. He even said “El Mencho es mi jefe” – “El Mencho is my boss.”
If we think about what is happening in Mexico at the local level, the images of the more than 250 narco-blockades that took place all over the country after the death of “El Mencho” were a display of power and influence that cannot be denied.
Add to this the following statistic: More than 50 Morena-affiliated politicians have had their U.S. visas revoked. This includes the case of presidential hopeful Marina del Pilar, Governor of Baja California Norte (a critical battleground state for cartel supremacy). At first, she expressed shock and concern. It would later be revealed that her husband was involved in trafficking, but not her. Don’t worry, though; she’s divorcing him, so you can believe she’s clean.
The images of buses burning and narco-blockades all over Mexico have already left a black eye on the tourism industry. For example, Puerto Vallarta was one of the epicenters of the CJNG’s retaliatory display of power. It’s a popular destination for Americans, and it is impossible to think that there won’t be any consequences to the violence that happened around the city.
A narrative that has been developing over the past few months has been Mexico’s efforts to keep tourists safe during the World Cup. At the end of 2025, an anonymous tip led to the discovery of a mass grave with 456 plastic bags containing human remains. What was alarming was not the find itself, as others with larger numbers have been found in other states, but the closeness (only a few hundred meters) to Akron Stadium. The stadium is in Zapopan, an affluent suburb—home of the Chivas de Guadalajara and a World Cup venue.
The much-anticipated re-opening of BBVA Stadium, formerly Aztec Stadium, was scheduled to take place on March 28, 2026, with Mexico facing Portugal. The match is now in doubt, as Portugal has expressed security concerns.
I don’t believe that Mexico’s World Cup hosting duties are in jeopardy, but that could change if this new conflict becomes visibly violent.
The Bully and the Coward: Trump’s Vulgar Display of Power
The biggest question following the death of “El Mencho” is, who’s going to replace him? Only time will tell, but what we’ve learned from the past is that cartel operations don’t stop. New leaders will emerge, new cells will consolidate power, and there will be more deaths.
The war between “Los Chapitos” and “La Mayiza” that erupted after the capture of “El Mayo” took approximately 60 days to start. Experts predict that the power struggles within the CJNG will take a few months to show publicly. To date, the war that erupted after the divisions in the Sinaloa cartel has produced over 2,000 homicides and an almost equal number of disappearances.
In the end, the death of “El Mencho” brings much relief to Mexican society overall. But it is a false sense of security. What people should be concerned with is the institutional corruption that has not disappeared with Morena, and that’s the root that allows organizations like the CJNG to exist in the first place.
