Claudia Sheinbaum’s Transition and the Continuation of AMLO’s Presidency

With Claudia Sheinbaum officially becoming President of Mexico today, there will be one narrative that dominates the headlines in the United States – in both general market and Spanish language media: “Mexico’s first female president assumes power”.

It is a historic event, there’s no denying that, and with Kamala Harris’ candidacy in the United States, it is also easy to make a connection.

The link between Harris and Sheinbaum is more relevant among liberal-leaning audiences, touting that if Sheinbaum could become President in a traditionally patriarchal society, Harris can do it in the United States, but things in Mexico aren’t quite what they seem.

Mexico, the Political Piñata: Claudia Sheinbaum’s America Problem

The more things change, the more they stay the same

When Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) selected Claudia Sheinbaum as his predecessor, he chose the path of least resistance.  With the popularity of his Morena Party at an all-time high, it didn’t matter who he chose, that person would become the next President of Mexico. 

The leading alternative to Sheinbaum was Foreign Minister and former Mayor of Mexico City, Marcelo Ebrard.

He, like AMLO, earned his political pedigree as a member of the PRI, the party that ruled Mexico as a democratic dictatorship for more than 75 years and is now almost non-existent. 

Ebrard’s political career was very similar to AMLO’s, both former Mayors of Mexico City, both bitter at the PRI’s leadership for not being promoted to cabinet positions sooner, and both joining the PRD as an alternative to achieve political power.

Morena was created as a political movement (led by AMLO) that separated from the PRD and based itself on populism and on the idea of a 4^th transformation of Mexico.

They used the PRI’s last president, Enrique Peña Nieto -a blunder and a poster child of ineptitude- as the example of why the PRI and the PAN were bad for Mexico.

He pointed to luxuries, scandals, corruption, and the rise of organized crime to differentiate himself and position himself as a man of “the people.”

The reality is that under Morena, scandals have been abundant, corruption is on the rise, and violent crime has risen to historic levels, but that’s a separate discussion.

An important omission from AMLO’s narrative is that the majority of PRI leadership shifted allegiances to Morena. With his political messaging machine in full force, AMLO and Morena have erased this fact from the context of any political discussion.

Politicians like Ebrard and Manuel Barlett (a former national PRI leader who in 2018 AMLO appointed as CEO of the Federal Electricity Commission, and who was suspected by the FBI in recently declassified documents of having links to organized crime) were too problematic for AMLO, he needed someone with less political baggage, someone he could easily influence, and that was Claudia Sheinbaum. 

She had many political advantages over other potential candidates, for example: she never belonged to the PRI, her political rise was parallel to the rise of Morena, she was aligned with AMLO in his two previous failed presidential campaigns, and most importantly she represents a relatable matriarchal figure that would make it very difficult for the opposition to attack her.

Any attack on her can be easily spinned as being anti-feminist, and we’ve heard that from AMLO and from Sheinbaum in the last few weeks. 

Don’t be fooled, Morena is the new PRI, and Claudia Sheinbaum is Morena.

AMLO’s eternal farewell tour

There’s one AMLO legacy that most Mexican’s will be able to point to, his daily morning press conferences, better known as “las mañaneras” or “the morning ones”. Breaking from political tradition in Mexico, he stood every morning in front of a podium at the National Palace, taking questions from reporters. 

These press conferences took place daily at 7 a.m. and lasted for at least a couple of hours. They represented a great visual for transparency, except that he rarely answered any questions with cohesion, he only took questions from sources that were aligned with him, and much like Donald Trump, answered any critical question with anger, insults, and little objectivity.

For example, when confronted about the astronomical rise in violent crime and murders in Mexico, his response was “yo tengo otros datos” or “I have other data”, and that was it. He refused to answer any more questions on the subject.

As any good populist would, AMLO has been touting his achievements in a farewell tour with stops in some of his signature projects and brought Sheinbaum along to symbolize and demonstrate the continuance of his policies. Projects like the “Tren Maya” or “Maya Train” – a high-speed train that will connect central Mexico with the Yucatán peninsula, and has been responsible for the devastation of entire protected ecological reservoirs, and the displacement of thousands of indigenous families (who he claims to represent). 

Or the new International Airport of Mexico City (AICM), a hastily constructed airport located 90 minutes away from the center of the City, which was constructed because AMLO terminated construction of a modern new airport in Mexico City. 

He did so because he would not allow the PRI to have a major victory, he would rather cancel that project (which was more than 60% completed with billions of dollars invested) and have one he could claim for himself, even if the airport is empty, inconvenient, and will never serve its true purpose.

La propaganda no es publicidad, AMLO MEGACHURCH: ¿Y ahora… qué hacer?

I’ll answer that for you

In all these farewell tour stops he refers to Sheinbaum as “we” (him and her), and how they will continue with Mexico’s 4^th transformation.

It’s clear that AMLO is having a hard time letting go of the spotlight, his ego won’t allow it, and this is ultimately going to reflect on Sheinbaum’s ability to forge her own character, her own policies, and her own vision for the future of Mexico. 

This was perfectly exemplified in a recent tour stop in the state of Sinaloa, where a state court employee dared asked Sheinbaum about the implementation of the national judicial reform that was recently passed by the Mexican Congress and Senate.

Before she could even respond, he responded for her, saying that she would not engage in that line of questioning. 

He answered for her, he “mansplained” her answer, and she happily went along.

That is how the rest of her presidency will operate – “you do as I tell you to do, after all, I made you”.

That’s what we can expect from Sheinbaum’s presidency – AMLO’s guidance, interference, stubbornness, and ego, with little independence and zero flexibility to be able to forge her own voice or her own vision for Mexico.

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